LOPEZ: BORIS JOHNSON AND THE EUROPE POST BREXIT
The Brexit and the triumph of Trump staged the settlement of the "teleological scenario" in which the purpose of the creative processes were planned by finite models that could intermodelar or simulate various alternative futures and in which prevailed the intention, purpose and foresight and replacing the "teleonomic scenario", marked by extreme doses of volatility that affect especially old Europe.
Thus, Europe would suffer an acute identity crisis compounded by the triumph of Brexit and the "process of European Balkanization" devised by the US for by attacks targeted terrorists, the refugee crisis and the awakening of independence desire of European Stateless , cause the appearance of centrifugal forces accelerate the dismemberment of the current European Union.
Boris Johson and the Brexit
In the UK converged greater exposure to toxic assets (subprime), to real estate assets and revalued pound had stalled exports, so the Bank of England was forced to make successive reductions in interest rates, implement quantitative measures (quantitative Easing) to increase the monetary base and repeatedly depreciate its currency to boost exports.
However, after returning to power the Conservatives led by David Cameron and faithful to his Eurosceptic policy (no British willingness to embark on a project in decline in which British sovereignty would be subject to the mandates of Brussels), they included in its election manifesto of 2,015 the call for a referendum on leaving the EU for 2016, which Cameron reassured the more radical base of his party while he snatched the flag to match rising-Eurosceptics (UKIP) in the belief in a comfortable victory and the continuation of United Kingdom in the European Union in conditions similar to Switzerland.
However, the emergence of centrifugal forces led by the former mayor of London, Boris Johnson got the unexpected victory of supporters of Brexit who believe that the UK does not need Europe because it could become the Singapore of the West from his vantage point City of London financial while overseas trade metropolis to pilot the flagship of Commonwealt reborn, following the philosophy of Winston Churchill:
"We are in Europe, but not in it," so after the triumph of Brexit, we could see the rebirth of Commonwealt and a new Falklands conflict.
The Europe post Brexit
The hypothetical exclusion of Greece from the eurozone would mean the settlement of the Eurozone as other peripheral countries (Portugal, Spain, Ireland, Malta and Cyprus), inexorably follow the centrifugal movement of Greece and must return to their national currencies suffer subsequent depreciation thereof and regression to levels typical of the 70’s income, with the consequent devastating effect on stock markets.
So, we will see the conversion of the current Eurozone in the Europe of Seven (Germany, France, Belgium, Holland, Italy, Luxembourg and Austria), leaving the other peripheral European countries (Portugal, Spain, Ireland, Greece, Slovenia, Malta and Cyprus), gravitating in their orbital rings and being forced to return to their national currencies suffer subsequent depreciation thereof, regression to levels of own income of the 70s and beginning of the exodus to rural areas a population urban affected by economic strangulation, housing and income embargo on the unemployment rolls, resulting in extensive rural revitalization and rejuvenation of its population.
In addition, the decline in exports because of the contraction in domestic consumption of the EU by the economic recession (trade between Member States of the EU reach 60% of the total volume of trade) and successive devaluations of currencies China and emerging countries more expensive European products and reduces their competitiveness against countries around the world, (with special emphasis on traditional exporting countries such as Finland) which could cause the country to leave the Eurozone and proceed to the establishment of a Scandinavian Federation (made by Norway, Finland, Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania) that pivotaría in the Russian-European trade ambivalence.
The other countries of central and eastern Europe (members of the Europe called emerging), suffer particularly harsh effects of the economic storm by not having the protective umbrella of the euro and will be forced to turn to depreciate their currencies, increasing dramatically its external debts and suffer alarming liquidity problems and also should return to autarkic economies after suffering massive internal migration, to dismiss the EC to amend the rules for adopting the euro in the European Union and thus to accelerate the accession of the members from central and eastern Europe and should proceed to the reopening of abandoned coal mines and obsolete nuclear power stations to shake off the energy rusodependencia states.
GERMÁN GORRAIZ LOPEZ-Analyst