Cuba’s dilemma in the face of the persistence of the Blockade
The end of the United States blockade against Cuba, demanded for the twenty-ninth consecutive year in the General Assembly of the United Nations Organization and overwhelmingly approved by 184 votes in favor, 2 against (USA and Israel) and 3 abstentions (Colombia, Ukraine and Brazil), reaffirms the freedom of commerce and navigation in the face of an anachronistic blockade established by Kennedy in 1962 and that would have meant direct and indirect losses for the Island estimated at $ 110,000 million according to the United Nations Program for Development (UNDP) and close to $ Billion according to the Cuban Government. In addition, the automatic renewal by the US for one more year of the trade embargo on the island would undermine the current international financial and political system and could entail losses for Cuba estimated at close to $ 7,000 million, leading the Cuban regime to suffocation. economic that can turn lethal after the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic.
Utopia would be the way to achieve a dream that would implicit in its power the faculty of becoming a concrete act, being necessary to walk along the path marked by il poverello d´Assisi: “It begins by doing what is necessary, then what is possible and suddenly you will be doing the impossible ”. Thus, utopia would be the normalization of relations between Cuba and the United States, the final destination of a journey marked by what is necessary (termination of the energy Blockade) and what is possible (suspension of the anachronistic Blockade) until reaching what seemed impossible (normalization of the relations between Cuba and the US). In this context of the search for utopia, the request of the think tank Cuba Study Group (CSG) to the Biden Administration for “a renewed diplomatic commitment with Cuba” is framed. Said analysis group chaired by businessman Carlos Saldrigas would represent the moderate tendency of the Cuban-American community and would be composed of prominent businessmen and political activists who actively participated in improving relations with Cuba during the Obama Presidency.
The road ahead will be marked by the challenges of the settlement of the energy blockade on the Island, the withdrawal of Cuba from the list of “States Sponsoring Terrorism”, the repeal of the Hemls-Burton Law and finally, the suspension of the anachronistic Blockade in force. since 1962, which would give way to the exchange of ambassadors and the desired normalization of relations between Cuba and the United States. However, in an interview with CNN, Joe Biden’s adviser for Latin America, Colombian Juan González, ruled out a new thaw with Cuba and assured that “Joe Biden is not Barack Obama in the policy towards the island” at the same time He added that “the political moment has changed significantly”, which would demonstrate the geopolitical myopia of the Biden Administration that could generate a vacuum in the Caribbean of unpredictable results in the middle of Cold War 2.0 between the US and Russia.
Thus, Russia would be negotiating to install its military bases with Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Seychelles and Singapore with the unequivocal objective of expanding the Russian military radius and after Biden’s decision to continue with the Blockade’s endemism we could witness a geopolitical rapprochement of Cuba and Russia that would culminate in the signing of a new Cuban military collaboration treaty with Russia (recalling the Secret Pact signed in 1960 in Moscow between Raúl Castro and Khrushchev) and that would include the installation of a radar base in the abandoned military base from Lourdes to comfortably listen to the whispers of Washington, being able to reissue the Missile Crisis (October 1962).
GERMÁN GORRAIZ LÓPEZ-Political analyst